一周行业动态8.8(中英文)
发布时间:2016/8/8 9:53:00
1、21世纪经济报道消息,国家信息中心经济预测部祝宝良认为,今年上半年,供给侧结构性改革遇到了一些阻力,改革进展也不如人意。
成效不显著有许多原因,比如利益集团的阻力、一些理论问题的争论等,但主要还是改革推进太慢了,其实即使从短期来看,供给侧结
构性改革对经济下行的压力也没那么大。因此,将来还应加大改革推进力度。
21st Century Business Herald news, Zhu Baoliang from the Economic Forecast Department of the National Information Center believes
that in the first half of this year, the structural reforms of the supply front encountered
some resistance, the reform progress is not satisfactory. The effectiveness was not obvious. There are many reasons, such as the
resistance from interest groups, the debate on some theoretical issues and so on, but mainly it was because the reform advancing
was too slow, In fact, even if in the short term, the economic downturn pressure caused by the structural reforms of the supply
front is not so big. Therefore, in the future, we should also intensify efforts to promote reform.
2、央行发布官方储备资产数据显示,7月,外汇储备32010.57亿美元,环比减少41.05亿美元。申万宏源表示,7月份汇兑损益部分
外储上升了59亿美元,因此非汇兑损益部分外储下降实际上比数据看起来更多。结合6月份外汇占款下降和银行结售汇逆差来看,
外部环境的动荡使人民币贬值预期逐渐升温,资本外流呈加速态势。
THE PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA (PBC) released official reserve assets data, which showed that in July, the foreign exchange
reserves were $ 3.201057 trillion, a sequential decrease of $ 4.105 billion. SHENWAN HONGYUAN SECURITIES stated, the exchange
gains and losses part in the foreign exchange reserves rose by $ 5.9 billion in July, so the decrease of the non-exchange gains
and losses part in the foreign exchange reserves actually looks more than that which was shown in the data. Seeing from the decline
of funds outstanding for foreign exchange and the deficit of bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange in June, the
volatile external environment caused the RMB devaluation expectation to gradually heat up, capital outflow trend is accelerating.
3、招商证券认为,由于美国二季度GDP增速不佳带来的对2016年美联储加息预期的再次实质性放缓,预计美元指数此后的强势程度有限,
并将在美联储下一次货币政策决议落地后进一步走弱,人民币汇率近期压力可控,且很可能在三季度末重新走强。
China Merchants Securities believes that, due to another substantial slowdown of the 2016 Fed rate hike expectation brought
by a poor US GDP growth in the second quarter, it is expected that the future strength level of the dollar index is limited,
and will further go weak after the landing of the Fed's next monetary policy decision. The recent pressure on the RMB
exchange rate is controllable, and is likely to be strong again at the end of the third quarter.
4、发改委政策研究室发文表示,坚定不移降低各种企业成本;加快民营银行审批节奏,鼓励商业银行创新信贷产品和担保方式;
鼓励商品房去库存,可采取发放购房补贴、先租后售、与政府共有产权等方式促进居民购房等。
The Policy Research Office of National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued an article and stated to
firmly reduce various enterprise costs; to speed up rhythms for the approval of private banks, encourage commercial banks’
innovation of credit products and guarantee ways; to encourage the destocking of commercial housings, and promote
the residents’ purchase of houses through means like issuing purchase subsidies, selling after renting, sharing property
rights with the government and so on.
5、方正证券任泽平认为,国企改革的顶层设计基本完成,已进入落实阶段。下半年,预计兼并重组、资产证券化、国资投资运营平台
这三个方面的力度会进一步加强。原因是这三个方向操作性强、有成熟可借鉴的案例,与供给侧改革密切相关,考核容易。
FOUNDER SECURITIES Ren Zeping believes that top-level design of state-owned enterprise (SOE) reform is basically
completed and has entered the implementation phase. In the second half of the year, it is expected that the forces
on three aspects of mergers and acquisitions, asset securitization and state-financed investment operation
platform will be further strengthened. The reason is that these three directions have strong operability,
have mature cases to learn from, are closely related to the reforms of the supply front, and are easy to be assessed.
6、发改委表示,下一步,国家将顺应居民消费升级趋势,在继续增加居民收入提升消费能力的同时,从供需两端发力,
进一步挖掘和释放消费潜力。重点工作包括加快推进消费重点领域制度创新,加快推进文化、体育、养老、教育等事业单位改革。
National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said that, next step, the state will follow the increasing trend
of the residents’ consumption, and at the same time of continuously increasing resident income to enhance their consumption
ability, forcing at both supply and demand ends to further tap and release consumption potential. The focus works include
accelerating the advancement of system innovation in key consumption areas, accelerating the advancement of reforms for
institutions of culture, sports, pension, education and the like.
7、证券时报消息,央行近日发布的二季度货币政策执行报告称,从量价两个方面保持货币金融环境的稳健和中性适度。若频繁降
准会大量投放流动性,促使市场利率下行,加上其信号意义较强,容易强化对政策放松的预期,导致本币贬值压力加大,外汇储备下降。
Securities Times news, THE PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA recently released the second quarter monetary policy report stating to
maintain a stable and moderate neutral monetary and financial environment from both volume and price. Frequent RRR cuts will put
in a lot of liquidity, promoting the downwards of market interest rates, coupled with its strong sense of signal, it is
easy to strengthen the policy easing expectation, resulting in the increase of currency devaluation pressure and the
decrease of foreign exchange reserves.